Fredericksburg, VA – The University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center released its official population estimates for Virginia counties and independent cities this February. The center’s estimates provide an approximation of a locality’s population count on July 1, 2025. Population estimates are typically based on a variety of observed administrative record data, such as births, deaths, school enrollment, and residential housing construction to detect population changes since the most recent decennial census.
State and local government agencies use this data for funding, planning and budgeting purposes. According to the most recent estimates, the George Washington Regional Commission (Planning District 16), which includes the City of Fredericksburg and counties of Caroline, King George, Spotsylvania, and Stafford has a 2025 population estimate of 412,429.
Compared to the April 1, 2020, census, the region’s population grew by 29,878 people, or 7.8%. Since the census, Caroline County has experienced the fourth fastest percentage growth rate of counties in Virginia.
From 2020 to 2025, Caroline County added 3,622 people, a 11.7% population increase, behind only New Kent, Goochland and Louisa counties. For cities, Fredericksburg jumped to the 6th fastest percentage growing city behind Falls Church City, Poquoson City, Suffolk Winchester, Waynesboro and tied with Fairfax City. Fredericksburg’s population estimate increased from 28,029 in July of 2024 to 29,866 in July of 2025 or an increase of 1,837 people.
PD16 ranks fourth in actual population growth with 29,878 new residents since the 2020 census. Only Richmond, Northern Virginia, and Crater (Petersburg/Chesterfield) regions exceed the PD16 population change with population changes of 83,830 and 61,242 and 38,967 respectively.
|
|
April 1, 2010 Census |
April 1, 2020 Census |
July 1, 2025 Estimate |
Since 2020 Numeric Change |
Since 2020 % Change |
|
Caroline |
28,545 |
30,887 |
34,509 |
3,622 |
11.7% |
|
King George |
23,584 |
26,723 |
28,589 |
1,866 |
7.0% |
|
Spotsylvania |
122,397 |
140,032 |
150,946 |
10,914 |
7.8% |
|
Stafford |
128,961 |
156,927 |
168,519 |
11,592 |
7.4% |
|
Fredericksburg City |
24,286 |
27,982 |
29,866 |
1,884 |
6.7% |
|
PD 16 Region |
327,773 |
382,551 |
412,429 |
29,878 |
7.8% |
“The GWRC region once again has the fastest growth rate of any of the 21 planning districts in Virginia,” GWRC Executive Director Chip Boyles said in the release. “Our region continues to monitor and plan for fast-changing commuting, housing and economic patterns occurring from the migration of families from DC, from Northern Virginia and from the Richmond areas.”
The full 2025 population estimates are available on the Weldon Cooper Center website.